National estimates of accuracy and completeness
Overview
This chart shows the accuracy and completeness estimates for England, Scotland and Wales for both the parliamentary and local government registers published in December 2018.
In England, the local government registers were found to be 89% accurate and the accuracy of the parliamentary registers also stood at 89%. The local government register was 83% complete, while the parliamentary register was slightly more complete, at 85%.
In Wales, the accuracy of the registers was similar to Great Britain as a whole with the local government register 89% accurate and the parliamentary register 88% accurate. The completeness of the local government and parliamentary registers was a little lower than the Great Britain average (81% and 82% respectively).
In Scotland parliamentary registers were 87% accurate and the local government registers were 86% accurate. Completeness was close to the Great Britain average at 83% for local government registers and 84% for the parliamentary registers.
Breakdown by area
The results for England in December 2018 show that:
- Parliamentary registers were 85% complete and 89% accurate
- Local government registers were 83% complete and 89% accurate
The findings lead to an estimate of between 7.0 to 8.1 million people in England who were eligible to be on the local government registers but were not correctly registered and an estimate of between 4.0 and 4.8 million inaccurate entries on the local government registers in December 2018.
Completeness
Region
There is some variation in completeness by English region, with completeness ranging from 76% in London to 91% in the North East.
| Region | December 2015 | December 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| England | 84% | 83% |
| North East | 78% | 91% |
| North West | 84% | 85% |
| Yorkshire and the Humber | 82% | 87% |
| East Midlands | 83% | 83% |
| West Midlands | 88% | 86% |
| East of England | 85% | 79% |
| London | 81% | 76% |
| South East | 87% | 84% |
| South West | 84% | 84% |
Urban/rural
In England the local government registers in 2018 were:
- 84% complete in rural areas
- 83% complete in urban areas
Length of residence
Previous research into the registers has found a connection between home movement and completeness: as registration is residence-based, greater mobility is associated with lower levels of completeness, while the longer an individual has been resident at their property, the more likely they are to appear on the electoral register.
As these figures demonstrate, this pattern continues in the local government registers for England, with completeness at:
- 36% among those who have lived at their address for up to a year
- 83% for those who have lived at their address for two to five years
- 90% for those resident between five and 10 years
- 88% for those living at their address for 10 to 16 years
- 92% for those resident for more than 16 years
Tenure
In England, homeowners (both those who own their home outright and those buying on a mortgage or shared ownership) are more likely to be registered than people in other types of tenure.
Completeness was highest among those who own outright (91%) compared to those in households buying with a mortgage (85%), social renters (83%) and private renters (58%).
Variations in completeness by tenure are closely linked to length of residence, with private renters much more likely to have lived at their address for a shorter period of time than those living in other tenures.
Age
Levels of completeness were found to vary by age group, with older groups more likely to be registered. This is a finding that has been consistent throughout our research.
Completeness stands at 72% for those aged 18-34, while it is higher for those aged 35-54 (85%) and those aged 55+ (93%).
Summary of completeness measures
This table provides a summary of the level of completeness across all key measures and a number of other measures associated with completeness, such as socio-economic group and nationality. These are also compared to the figures for Great Britain as a whole.
| England | Great Britain | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban/rural | Urban | 83% | 83% |
| Rural | 84% | 85% | |
| Gender | Male | 82% | 83% |
| Female | 83% | 83% | |
| Age | 18-34 | 72% | 71% |
| 35-54 | 85% | 86% | |
| 55+ | 93% | 93% | |
| Tenure | Own outright | 91% | 91% |
| Mortgage/shared ownership | 85% | 86% | |
| Social renter | 83% | 83% | |
| Private renter | 58% | 58% | |
| Rent-free/other | 71% |
69% |
|
| Socio-economic group | AB | 86% | 86% |
| C1 | 84% | 84% | |
| C2 | 80% | 80% | |
| DE | 79% | 80% | |
| Adults in household | 1 | 86% | 86% |
| 2 | 84% | 84% | |
| 3 to 5 | 81% | 81% | |
| 6+ | 79% | 78% | |
| Length of residence | Up to 1 year | 36% | 36% |
| Between 1 year and 2 years | 70% | 71% | |
| Between 2 and 5 years | 83% | 84% | |
| Between 5 and 10 years | 90% | 90% | |
| Between 10 and 16 years | 88% | 88% | |
| 16 years or more | 92% | 92% | |
| Nationality | UK and Irish | 85% | 86% |
| EU | 54% | 54% | |
| Commonwealth | 62% | 62% |
Accuracy
This table shows the types of error found on the December 2018 local government registers. As for Great Britain overall, the most significant proportion of major errors - those which would prevent someone from voting, or incorrectly allow someone to vote – relate to entries that refer to individuals who no longer live at the property (10%).
In England, 9% of entries contain minor errors, which would not prevent them from voting. This is the same proportion as in Great Britain as a whole.
| England | Great Britain | |
|---|---|---|
| Major errors total | 10.9% | 11.2% |
| Major errors-(a) | 10.1% | 10.4% |
| No corresponding name taken at address | ||
| Major errors-(b) | ||
| First name and/or surname wrong on register | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| First name and/or surname missing on register | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UK/Irish/Commonwealth marker present | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Major errors- (c) | ||
| Name on survey corresponds to ineligible name on survey | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Attainers- DOB missing or wrong | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| EU citizens marker missing | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Accurate with minor errors | 8.9% | 9.1% |
| First name and/or surname on register misspelled | 1.3% | 1.2% |
| First name/surname on register incomplete | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Middle name missing from register | 6.1% | 6.4% |
| Middle name or initials misspelled or incomplete on register | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Middle name or initial wrong on register | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Person does not have a middle name but middle name on registers (respondents only) | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Surname is/assumed to be previous surname | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First/middle/surname in different order on register | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| DOB earlier on register for attainer | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The results for Scotland in December 2018 show that:
- Parliamentary registers were 84% complete and 87% accurate
- Local government registers were 83% complete and 86% accurate
The findings lead to an estimate of:
- between 630,000 and 890,000 people in Scotland who were eligible to be on the local government registers but were not correctly registered
- between 400,000 and 745,000 inaccurate entries on the local government registers in December 2018
Completeness
Urban/rural
In Scotland, the local government registers in 2018 were:
- 89% complete in rural areas
- 82% complete in urban areas
Length of residence
Previous research into the registers has found a connection between home movement and completeness. As registration is residence-based, greater mobility is associated with lower levels of completeness, while the longer an individual has been resident at their property, the more likely they are to appear on the electoral register.
This chart shows that this pattern continues in the local government registers for Scotland, with completeness at:
- 32% among those who have lived at their address for up to a year
- 84% among those who have lived at their address for two to five years
- 91% for those who have lived at their address between five and 10 years
- 95% for those living at their address for 10 to 16 years
- 94% for those living at their address for more than 16 years
Tenure
In Scotland, homeowners are more likely to be registered than people in other types of tenure.
Completeness was highest among those who own outright (95%), compared to those in households buying with a mortgage (87%), social renters (81%) and private renters (49%).
Variations in completeness by tenure are closely linked to length of residence, with private renters much more likely to have lived at their address for a shorter period of time than those living in other tenures.
Age
Levels of completeness were found to vary by age group, with older groups more likely to be registered. This is a finding that has been consistent throughout our research.
Completeness stands at 68% for those aged 18-34 while it is higher for those aged 35-54 (87%) and those aged 55+ (92%).
Summary of other completeness measures
The table below provides a summary of the level of completeness across key measures, and a number of other measures associated with completeness, such as socio-economic group and nationality. These are also compared to the figures for Great Britain as a whole.
| Scotland | Great Britain | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban/rural | Urban | 82% | 83% |
| Rural | 89% | 85% | |
| Gender | Male | 85% | 83% |
| Female | 82% | 83% | |
| Age | 18-34 | 68% | 71% |
| 35-54 | 87% | 86% | |
| 55+ | 92% | 93% | |
| Tenure | Own outright | 95% | 91% |
| Mortgage/shared ownership | 87% | 86% | |
| Social renter | 81% | 83% | |
| Private renter | 49% | 58% | |
| Rent-free/other | 73% |
69% |
|
| Socio-economic group | AB | 88% | 86% |
| C1 | 85% | 84% | |
| C2 | 80% | 80% | |
| DE | 78% | 80% | |
| Adults in household | 1 | 79% | 86% |
| 2 | 84% | 84% | |
| 3 to 5 | 85% | 81% | |
| 6+ | - | 78% | |
| Length of residence | Up to 1 year | 32% | 36% |
| Between 1 year and 2 years | 65% | 71% | |
| Between 2 and 5 years | 84% | 84% | |
| Between 5 and 10 years | 91% | 90% | |
| Between 10 and 16 years | 95% | 88% | |
| 16 years or more | 94% | 92% | |
| Nationality | UK and Irish | 85% | 86% |
| EU | 58% | 54% | |
| Commonwealth | 58% | 62% |
Accuracy
This table shows the types of error found on the December 2018 local government registers. As for Great Britain, the most significant proportion of major errors which would prevent someone from voting, or incorrectly allow someone to vote, relate to entries that refer to individuals who no longer live at the property (13%).
In Scotland 11% of entries contain minor errors which would not prevent someone from voting. This figure is close to that for Great Britain (9%).
| Scotland | Great Britain | |
|---|---|---|
| Major errors total | 14.0% | 11.2% |
| Major errors-(a) | 13.1% | 10.4% |
| No corresponding name taken at address | ||
| Major errors-(b) | ||
| First name and/or surname wrong on register | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| First name and/or surname missing on register | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UK/Irish/Commonwealth marker present | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Major errors- (c) | ||
| Name on survey corresponds to ineligible name on survey | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Attainers- DOB missing or wrong | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| EU citizens marker missing | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Accurate with minor errors | 11.2% | 9.1% |
| First name and/or surname on register misspelled | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| First name/surname on register incomplete | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Middle name missing from register | 9.3% | 6.4% |
| Middle name or initials misspelled or incomplete on register | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Middle name or initial wrong on register | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Person does not have a middle name but middle name on registers (respondents only) | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Surname is/assumed to be previous surname | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| First/middle/surname in different order on register | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| DOB earlier on register for attainer | 0.0% | 0.0% |
The results for Wales in December 2018 show that:
- Parliamentary registers were 82% complete and 88% accurate
- Local government registers were 81% complete and 89% accurate
The findings lead to an estimate of between 410,000 and 560,000 people in Wales who were eligible to be on the local government registers but were not correctly registered.
There were an estimate of between 200,000 and 330,000 inaccurate entries on the local government registers in December 2018.
Completeness
Urban/rural
In Wales, the local government registers in 2018 were:
- 82% complete in rural areas
- 81% complete in urban areas
Length of residence
Previous research into the registers has found a connection between home movement and completeness. As registration is residence-based, greater mobility is associated with lower levels of completeness, while the longer an individual has been resident at their property, the more likely they are to appear on the electoral register.
This pattern continues in the local government registers for Wales, with completeness at:
- 30% among those who have lived at their address for up to a year
- 83% for those who have lived at their address for two to five years and between five and 10 years
- 88% for those who have lived at their address for 10 to 16 years
- 91% for those who have lived at their address for more than 16 years
Tenure
In Wales, homeowners are more likely to be registered than people in other types of tenure.
Completeness was highest among those who own outright (91%) compared to those in households buying with a mortgage (78%), social renters (81%) and private renters (60%).
Variations in completeness by tenure are closely linked to length of residence with private renters much more likely to have lived at their address for a shorter period of time than those living in other tenures.
Age
Levels of completeness were found to vary by age group, with older groups more likely to be registered. This is a finding that has been consistent throughout our research.
Completeness stands at 67% for those aged 18-34 while it is higher for those aged 35-54 (84%) and those aged 55+ (95%).
Summary of completeness measures
This table summarises the level of completeness across key measures, and a number of other measures associated with completeness, such as socio-economic group and nationality. These are also compared to the figures for Great Britain as a whole.
| Wales | Great Britain | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Urban/rural | Urban | 81% | 83% |
| Rural | 82% | 85% | |
| Gender | Male | 80% | 83% |
| Female | 82% | 83% | |
| Age | 18-34 | 67% | 71% |
| 35-54 | 84% | 86% | |
| 55+ | 95% | 93% | |
| Tenure | Own outright | 91% | 91% |
| Mortgage/shared ownership | 78% | 86% | |
| Social renter | 81% | 83% | |
| Private renter | 60% | 58% | |
| Rent-free/other | 51% |
69% |
|
| Socio-economic group | AB | 87% | 86% |
| C1 | 82% | 84% | |
| C2 | 82% | 80% | |
| DE | 76% | 80% | |
| Adults in household | 1 | 82% | 86% |
| 2 | 83% | 84% | |
| 3 to 5 | 77% | 81% | |
| 6+ | - | 78% | |
| Length of residence | Up to 1 year | 30% | 36% |
| Between 1 year and 2 years | 68% | 71% | |
| Between 2 and 5 years | 83% | 84% | |
| Between 5 and 10 years | 83% | 90% | |
| Between 10 and 16 years | 88% | 88% | |
| 16 years or more | 91% | 92% | |
| Nationality | UK and Irish | 82% | 86% |
| EU | 57% | 54% | |
| Commonwealth | 59% | 62% |
Accuracy
The table below shows the types of error found on the December 2018 local government registers. As for Great Britain overall, the most significant proportion of major errors which would prevent someone from voting, or incorrectly allow someone to vote, relate to entries that refer to individuals who no longer live at the property (11%).
In Wales, 10% of entries contain minor errors, which would not prevent someone from voting.
| Wales | Great Britain | |
|---|---|---|
| Major errors total | 11.7% | 11.2% |
| Major errors-(a) | 10.8% | 10.4% |
| No corresponding name taken at address | ||
| Major errors-(b) | ||
| First name and/or surname wrong on register | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| First name and/or surname missing on register | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| UK/Irish/Commonwealth marker present | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| Major errors- (c) | ||
| Name on survey corresponds to ineligible name on survey | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Attainers- DOB missing or wrong | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| EU citizens marker missing | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Accurate with minor errors | 9.7% | 9.1% |
| First name and/or surname on register misspelled | 0.8% | 1.2% |
| First name/surname on register incomplete | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Middle name missing from register | 8.1% | 6.4% |
| Middle name or initials misspelled or incomplete on register | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Middle name or initial wrong on register | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Person does not have a middle name but middle name on registers (respondents only) | 0.6% | 1.3% |
| Surname is/assumed to be previous surname | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| First/middle/surname in different order on register | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| DOB earlier on register for attainer | 0.0% | 0.0% |